Hogg DNA Project R1b cluster no. 1


This cluster currently consists of 24 members. Seven of them have the surname Hoge/Hogue and are confirmed or suspected descendants of William Hoge and Barbara Hume, who came to America on the ship CALIDONIA ariving at Perth Amboy, New Jersey, in about 1682 (the line identified as NJ1682). In addition, there are several other individuals with matching DNA having other surnames including Carr/Kerr/Karr/Cerr, Hamilton, McLean, McIntire, Kilgour, Roberts, Prater, and Middleton. The DNA match indicates that all of these people share a common ancestor.

Minimal pedigrees for the Hoge/Hogue members of the cluster that we can trace back to William Hoge and Barbara Hume are shown here:

   1 Sir John Hoge b.ca.1575, Musselburgh Scotland, d. aft 1613
     2 George Hoge b.1606, Musselburgh Scotland, d.ca.1638, Bermersyde House, Scotland
       3 Sir James Hoge, b.ca.1638, Musselburgh Scotland, d.1682
         4 William Hoge b.1660, Musselburgh Scotland, d.1745, Frederick Co. VA
           5 Judge John Hoge b.1685-1699, Perth Amboy NJ d.11_Oct_1745, Lancaster Co. PA
           . 6 Rev. John Hoge Jr. b.ca.1723, Chester Co. PA d.11_Feb_1807, Northumberland Co. PA
           .   7 Ebenezer Hoge b.19_Mar_1765 d. after 1850
           .     8 John Hoge b.1789 d.Apr_1877
           .       9 John Hoge b.1828, Pennsylvania
           .        10 Wilson Joseph Hoge/Hogue b.16_Mar_1855, Pennsylvania d.31_Aug_1890, Washington Co. PA
           .          11 Charles Wesley Hogue b.15_Aug_1886, Little Washington PA d.31_Dec_1955, Bradford PA
           .            12 Leroy Gordon Hogue b.29_Oct_1929, McKean PA d.6_Jan_1997, Spencerport, Monroe Co. NY
           .              13 Project ID NJ1682e: desc of William Hoge > Judge John Hoge
           5 William Hoge Jr. b.1708, Perth Amboy NJ, d.21_Apr_1759, Loudon Co. VA
             6 James Hoge b.6_Dec_1724, Chester Co. PA
             . 7 Jacob Hoge b.1755, d.1817
             .   8 Solomon Hogue b.ca.1778, Dallas, Paulding Co. GA
             .   . 9 Montgomery Hogue b.1820, Georgia
             .   .  10 Thomas Jefferson Hogue b.29_Sep_1855, Holly Springs, Dallas Co. AR
             .   .    11 Emmitt Leonard Hogue b.27_June_1896, Falls Co. TX d.17_Nov_1978, Howard Co. TX
             .   .      12 Bruce Leonard Hogue b.1925, Texas
             .   .        13 Project ID NJ1682f: desc of Montgomery Hogue, b.1820, Georgia
             .   8 James Hogue b.ca.1780, Dallas, Paulding Co. GA
             .     9 William S. Hogue b.1799, Paulding Co. GA d.26_Feb_1883, Paulding Co. GA
             .     .10 William Jacob Hogue b.9_May_1830, Paulding Co. GA d.19_Jan_1905, Paulding Co. GA
             .     .  11 William Thomas Hogue b.May_1853, Georgia
             .     .    12 Dr. William L. Hogue b.Sep_1880, Georgia d. before 2001
             .     .      13 Dr. William Leroy Hogue b.1915, Draketown, Haralson Co. GA d.29_Jul_2001, Augusta GA
             .     .        14 Project ID NJ1682c: desc of William Hoge > William > James #2
             .     9 Jacob Hogue b.4_May_1800, Dallas, Paulding Co. GA d.7_May_1873, Marshall, Harrison Co. TX
             .      10 Jonathan Patrick Hogue b.ca.1847, Draketown, Haralson Co. GA, d.1895, Bright Star AR
             .        11 Ben Dee Hogue b. 29_Mar_1879, Arkansas
             .          12 Clifford Easters Hogue b.1_Jun_1918, Texas
             .            13 Project ID NJ1682a: desc of William Hoge > William > James #1
             6 William Hoge III b.4_Jan_1725/26, Chester Co. PA d.6_Oct_1804
             . 7 Solomon Hoge b.4_Mar_1767, Virginia d.7_Jul_1813, Greene Co. PA
             .   8 Joseph Hoge b.16_Nov_1806, Franklin Twp., Greene Co. PA d.9_Nov_1893, Center Twp., Greene Co. PA
             .     9 William Hoge b.15_Dec_1830, Center Twp., Greene Co. PA d.21_Feb_1921, Holbrook, Greene Co. PA
             .      10 William Graham Hoge b.28_Jul_1855, Center, Greene Co. PA d.22_Sep_1932, Holbrook, Greene Co. PA
             .        11 Harry Clifton "Pete" Hoge b.4_Oct_1895, Greene Co. PA d.31_Jul_1964, Amity, Berks Co. PA
             .          12 Laverne Hoge b.27_Mar_1923, Pennsylvania
             .            13 Project ID NJ1682g: desc of William Hoge > William > William
`            6 George Hoge b.6_Feb_1732/33, Frederick Co. VA d.1805, Green Co. PA
               7 Thomas Hoge b.25_Sep_1765, Green Co. PA, d.4_Jan_1837, Green Co. PA
               . 8 Abner Hoge b.1_Nov_1812, Green Co. PA, d.26_Feb_1890, Wenono IL
               .   9 Thomas Jefferson Hoge b.10_Apr_1840, Green Co. PA, d.22_Jan_1905, Wenona IL
               .    10 John C. Hoge b.10_Sep_1887, Wenona IL, d.20_Feb_1960, Phoenix AZ
               .      11 Project ID NJ1682b: desc of William Hoge > William > George, b.1732
               7 ________ Hoge (this connection is a guess)
                 8 Isaac Hoge of Greene Co. PA b.1801, Pennsylvania
                   9 Edward Hoge b.1834, Pennsylvania d.1910, Pennsylvania
                    10 Isaac F. Hoge b.1870, Ohio d.1962, West Virginia
                      11 Russell Hogue b.1902, West Virginia d.1958, Arizona
                        12 Denver Hogue b.1923, West Virginia d.1987, Georgia
                          13 Project ID NJ1682d: desc of Isaac Hoge of Greene Co. PA

Other than their different surnames, and in some cases their earliest known ancestor, we don't have as much information about the other members of the cluster. Some of them descend from an ancestor that emmigrated to America, offering the possibilty that their connection to the Hoge/Hogue line might be here (in America) during the colonial period. Others, however, descends from ancestors that did not emmigrate to America, indicating that their connection to the Hoge/Hogue line is in Europe, probably Scotland, before 1682. There are some members of the cluster for which all we know is their surname and their DNA data.

The following table is an abridged compilation of the DNA data from all members of the cluster. Here we have included only the data for markers for which we find more than one value; i.e., markers for which all members of the cluster have the same value are not shown.

As an aid to understanding the significance of a mutation in one marker relative to other markers, we show estimates of the inverse mutation rate in the form of average number of generations per mutation. Note that there is a large spread in mutation rates ranging from the lowest rate of one mutation in 1010 generations to the higest rate of one mutation in 28 generations. Markers with a high mutation rate are commonly referred to as "fast" markers and markers with a low mutation rate are commonly referred to as "slow" markers. The mutation rates shown in the table are from http://freepages.genealogy.rootsweb.ancestry.com/~geneticgenealogy/ratestuff.htm

It should be noted that muttions are rare events. Even the higest mutation rate of one mutation in 28 generations is a low mutations rate. Consequently, The Y-DNA is very stable and largely retains its identity for many generations. This property is why we use the Y-DNA as a tracer of the male line of descent. Also, the generally low mutation rate is why we require a large number of markers for the data to be reliable.

For most markers we are able to determine an unambibuous "modal" value, i.e., the most common value for that marker. In a large population the modal value is strictly defined as the most common value, a mathimatical definition. However, in a relatively small populaton with various degrees of relationship between the members, we are prudent to be less strict and apply some judgment. Nevertheless, we will take the liberty of referring to the result as a "modal". Our intent in determining a modal for the cluster is to think of the modal as representing the unknown common ancestor. For many markers, data from all members of the cluster have the same value and that value is the uncontested modal value. For several markers all but one or two members of the cluster have the same value and that values is the unambiguous modal value. However, for three markers, the modal values is not so obvious: For DYS359b most of the members of the cluster with the surname Hoge/Hogue have the value 9 and most of the members of the cluster with the surmane Carr etc. have the valuee 10, so we cannot pick an unambigous modal value without showing a prejudice for the origin of the cluster. Likewise, for DYS464 most of the members of the cluster with the surname Hoge/Hogue have value 15-17-18 and most of the members of the cluster with the surname Carr etc. have the value 15-17, so we cnnnot pick an unambigous modal value withot showing a prejudice for the oritin of the cluster. Finally, for DYS534 a few members of the cluster have the values 14, a few have the value 15, and a few have the vaule 16. We would like to follow the process of first using the modal to infer the haplotype of the unknown common ancestor and then using the mutations from that haplotype to build a tree descending from the unknown common ancestor. However, given the uncerrainty in the modal, we are forcesd to consider two hypotheses: (1) a Hoge-like haplotype for the unknown common ancestor and (2) a Carr-like haplotype for the unknown common ancestor. We present both hypotheses in the following table of values.

                   DYS  DYS  DYS  DYS  DYS  DYS  DYS  DYS     DYS464  DYS  GAT  DYS  DYS            DYS  DYS  DYS
marker             390 385a  439  458 359b  437  448  449    a/b/c/d  460  AH4  456  570 CDYa CSYb  442  534  461

inverse mutation
rate (generations  322  442  210  123  442 1010  741  119        177  249  481  136 127   28   28  309  120  430
per mutation)

modal values        24   11   13   16    ?   15   20   28          ?   11   11   16   18   36   38   12    ?   12

Hoge-like
ancestral           24   11   13   16    9   15   20   28   15-17-18   11   11   16   18   36   38   12   15   12
haplotype

Carr-like
ancestral           24   11   13   16   10   15   20   28      15-17   11   11   16   18   36   38   12   14   12
haplotype

proj ID  surname    data... (*xx* indicates a mutation from the Hoge-like ancestral haplotype)

NJ1682a  Hogue      24   11   13   16    9   15   20   28   15-17-18   11   11   16   18   36   38   12   --   --
NJ1682b  Hoge       24   11   13   --    -   --   --   --   --------   --   --   --   --   --   --   --   --   --
NJ1682c  Hogue      24   11   13   16    9   15   20   28   15-17-18   11   11   16   18   36   38   12   15   --
NJ1682d  Hogue     *23*  11   13   16    9   15   20   28   15-17-18   11   11   16   18  36   38   12   --   --
NJ1682e  Hogue      24   11  *12*  16    -   15   20  *29*  15-17-18   11   11   16   --   --   --   --   --   12
NJ1682f  Hogue      24   11   13   16    -   15   20   28   15-17-18   11   11   --   --   --   --   --   --   12
Nj1682g  Hoge       24   11   13   16    -  *14*  20   28  *15-17*     11   11   16   --   --   --   --   15   12
other42  Prater     24   11   13   16    9   15   20   28   15-17-18  *10*  11   16   18   36   38   12   15   12
other08  McLean     24   11   13   16    9   15   20   28   15-17-18  *10*  11   16   18   36  *37*  12   --   --
other06  Hamilton   24   11   13   16    9   15   20   28   15-17-18   11  *12*  16   18   36  *37*  12  *14*  --
other07  Carr       24   11   13   16    9   15   20   28   15-17-18   11   11   16   18  *37*  38   12  *16*  --
other13  Carr       24   11   13   16    9   15   --   28   15-17-18   --   11   --   --   --   --   12   --   12
other33  Carr       24  *12*  13   16    9   15   20   28   15-17-18   11   11   16   18  *37*  38   12  *16*  --
other10  Kerr       24   11   13   16    9   15   20   28  *15*        --   --   --   --   --   --   --   --   --
other41  Karre      24   11   13   16    9   15   20   28  *15-17*    *10*  11   16   18   36   38   12  *14*  --
other12  McIntire   24   11   13   16    9   15  *19*  28  *15-17*     11   11   16   --   --   --   12   --   --
other09  Carr       24   11   13   16  *10*  15   20   28  *15-17*     --   --   --   --   --   --   --   --   --
other11  Cerr       24   11   13   16  *10*  15   20   28  *15-16-17*  11   11   16   --   --   --   12   --   --
other14  Karr       24   11   13   16    -   15   20   28  *15-17*     11   11   --   --   --   --   --   --   12
other15  Carr       24   11  *11*  16    -   15   20   28  *15-17*     11   11   --   --   --   --   --   --   12
other16  Carr       24   11   13  *17*   -   15   20   28  *15-17*     11   11   --   --   --   --   --   --  *13*
other23  Kilgour    24   11   13   16  *10*  15   20   28  *15-17*     11   11   16   18   36  *36*  12  *14*  --
other24  Roberts    24   11   13   16  *10*  15   20   28  *15-17*     11   11   16  *19*  36  *37* *11* *14*  --
other28  Middleton  24   11   13   16  *10*  15   20   28  *15-17*     11   11  *15*  --   --   --   12   --  *13*

The goal at this point is to use the information in hand (DNA data, surnames, and pedigrees) to infer the tree describing the descent of each cluster member from the unknown common ancestor. We do not persume to know the surname of the unknown common ancestor, or for that matter, that he had a surname. It is possible, perhaps likely, that the common ancestor lived in medieval Scotland prior to the selection/assignment of surnames. However, some of the surnames in the cluster were in use very early, so one of them might have been used by the common ancestor.

The trees to follow start with the unknown common ancestor on the left and, working to the right, branch as necessary to reflect a DNA mutation or a surname change. In principle, there are a very large number of possibilities and finding the correct tree with absolute certainty is not possible. Our approach is to start with logic and reason and use the science and mathematics of probability and statistics to infer our best guess at the correct tree. DNA mutations are random events and anything can happen in any given case, however, since DNA mutations are rare events, some possibilites have very high probability and others have very low probability. In the jargon of mathematics we are using a "maximum likelihood" approach. We will consider all reasonable possibilities and choose the one with the highest likelihood of being correct. But, it is important to remember that unlikely events do sometimes happen: It would have been considered unlikely that the TITANIC would strike an iceburg and sink on her maiden voyage.

Given complete knowledge of the probabilities of mutations in each marker and the willingness to actually consider every concievable possibility, we could construst a rigorous maximum-likelihood selection of the most likely tree. However, since mutations are very rare events, we can simplify the process. In practice, finding the maximum-likelihood answer is equivlant to finding the one that has the smallest number of mutations. Counting the number of different values at each marker in the table above and adding them up, we find that there must be at least 24 DNA mutations. If we could find a tree with only 24 mutations, that tree would be much more likely than any other tree requiring more than 24 mutations. If we were able to find more than one tree with only 24 mutations, we would not be able to choose any one over the others without doing the rigorous calculation based on specific probabilities of indivual markers, and even then, the differences in likelihood will be modest at best.

It is sometimes possible to find one marker that appears to separate the entire set into two groups. That would be the earliest mutation closest to the trunk of the tree. In this case, that appears to be either DYS359b, which is 9 or 10, or DYS464, which either is 15-17-18 or 15-17. However, we cannot tell if the unknown common ancestor had DYS359b=9 and DYS464=15-17-18 or if he had DYS359b=10 and DYS464=15-17. We have no choice but to try both possibilities. In practice, by assuming one or the other of these two possibilities, we are making an assumption of which of the two domonant groups, the Hoge's with DYS359b=9 and DYS464=15-17-18, or the Carr's with DYS359b=10 and DYS464=15-17, are on the trunk of the trees. We will construct two trees based on these two possibilities. If one of them has fewer mutations than the other, that will be the one most likely to be correct.

The trees that follows begin with the unknown common ancestor on the left and branch out to the right. Beneath the name "unknown name" are the values assumed for him for all of the DNA markers that show a later mutation. Under each name on the branches to right are the values for the markers that, for that branch, differ from what was assumed for the unknown common ancestor. In each case, when the value for a given marker differs from the value of the preceeding branch, indicating a mutation, that marker is flagged with an asterisk.

Tree no. 1: This is the tree that results from assuming the unknown common ancestor had DYS359b=9 and DYS464=15-17-18. Since most of the Hoge's have these values, this tree has the Hoge's on the trunk and the Carr's as a branch.

unknown name ---+- Hoge/Hogue ---+- Hoge/Hogue - NJ1682a/b/c/f 390=24 | | 285a=11 | +- Hogue - NJ1682d 439=13 | | *390=23 458=16 | | 359b=9 | +- Hogue - NJ1682e 437=15 | | *439=12 448=20 | | *449=29 449=28 | | 464=15-17-18 | +- Hoge - NJ1682g 460=11 | *437=14 GATAH4=11 | *464=15-17 456=16 | 570=18 +- Prater/McLn --+- Prater - other42 CDYa=36 | *460=10 | 460=10 CDYb=38 | | 442=12 | +- McLean - other08 534=15 | 460=10 461=12 | *CDYb=37 | +- Hamilton - other06 | *GATAH4=12 | *CDYb=37 | *534=14 | +- Carr ---------+- Carr - other13 | *534=16 | 534=16(?) | | | +- Carr ---------+- Carr - other07 | 534=16 | 534=16 | *CDYa=37 | CDYa=37 | | | +- Carr - other33 | 534=16 | CDYa=37 | *385a=12 | +- Carr et. al. -+- Karre - other42 *534=14 | 534=14 *464=15-17 | 464=15-17 | *460=10 | +- McIntire - other12 | 464=15-17 | *448=19 | +- Kerr - other10 | *464=15 | +- Carr et.al. --+- Carr/Karr ----+- Carr/Karr - other09/14 534=14 | 534=14 | 534=14 464=15-17 | 464=15-17 | 464=15-17 *359b=10 | 359b=10 | 359b=10(?) | | | +- Carr - other15 | 534=14 | 464=15-17 | 359b=10(?) | *439=11 | +- Carr/Middl. --+- Middleton - other28 | 534=14 | 534=14 | 464=15-17 | 464=15-17 | 359b=10 | 359b=10 | *461=13 | 461=13 | | *456=15 | | | +- Carr - other16 | 534=14 | 464=15-17 | 359b=10? | 461=13 | *458=17 | +- Kilgo/Roger. -+- Roberts - other24 | 534=14 | 534=14 | 464=15-17 | 464=15-17 | 359b=10 | 359b=10 | *CDYb=37 | CDYb=37 | | *570=19 | | *442=11 | | | +- Kilgour - other23 | 534=14 | 464=15-17 | 359b=10 | *CDYb=36 | +- Cerr - other11 534=14 359b=10 *464=15-16-17

Tree no. 2: This is the tree that results from assuming the unknown common ancestor had DYS359b=10 and DYS464=15-17. Since most of the Carr's have these values, this tree has the Carr's on the trunk and the Hoge's as a branch.

unknown name ---+- Carr et.al. --+- Carr et.al. --+- Carr/Karr - other09/14 390=24 | | | 385a=11 | | +- Carr - other15 439=13 | | *439=11 458=16 | | 359b=10 | +- Carr/Middl. --+- Middleton - other28 437=15 | | *461=13 | 461=13 448=20 | | | *456=15 449=28 | | | 464=15-17 | | +- Carr - other16 460=11 | | 461=13 GATAH4=11 | | *458=17 456=16 | | 570=18 | +- Kilgo/Rober. -+- Roberts - other24 CDYa=36 | | *CDYb=37 | CDYb=37 CDYb=38 | | | *570=19 442=12 | | | *442=11 534=14 | | | 461=12 | | +- Kilgour - other23 | | | *CDYb=36 | | | +- Cerr - other11 | *464=15-16-17 | +- Carr/Hoge/+ --+- Karre - other42 *359b=9 | 359b=9 | *460=10 | +- McIntire - other12 | 359b=9 | *448=19 | +- Kerr - other10 | 359b=9 | *464=15 | +- Hoge/Carr ----+- Carr ---------+- Carr - other13 359b=9 | 359b=9 | 359b=9 *534=15 | 464=15-17-18 | 464=15-17-18 *464=15-17-18 | *534=16 | 534=16(?) | | | +- Carr ---------+- Carr - other07 | 359b=9 | 359b=9 | 464=15-17-18 | 464=15-17-18 | 534=16 | 534=16 | *CDYa=37 | CDYa=37 | | | +- Carr - other33 | 359b=9 | 464=15-17-18 | 534=16 | CDYa=37 | *395a=12 | +- Hoge/Hogue ---+- Hoge/Hogue - NJ1682a/b/c/f | 359b=9 | 359b=9 | 534=15 | 534=15 | 464=15-17-18 | 464=15-17-18 | | | +- Hogue - NJ1682e | | 359b=9 | | 534=15 | | 464=15-17-18 | | *439=12 | | *449=29 | | | +- Hogue - NJ1682g | | 359b=9 | | 534=15 | | *464=15-17 | | *437=13 | | | +- Hogue - NJ1682d | 359b=9 | 534=15 | 464=15-17-18 | *390=23 | +- Prater/McLn -+- Prater - other42 | 359b=9 | 359b=9 | 534=15 | 534=15 | 464=15-17-18 | 464=15-17-18 | *460=10 | 460=10 | | | +- McLean - other08 | 359b=9 | 534=15 | 464=15-17-18 | 460=10 | *CDYb=37 | +- Hamilton - other06 359b=9 464=15-17-18 *CDYb=37 *GATAH4=12 *534=14

Counting the number of asterices in each of these two trees shows 28 mutations. We have tried other alternatives but have not found any other tree with less than 29 mutations. However, we cannot claim that our search has been exaustive and we cannot rule out the possibility that persistance will reveal other results. Suggestions and comments are welcome and encouraged.

We are not able to construct a tree with only 24 mutations. The difficulty is with CDYb, DYS534, and DSY460. These three markers show the same mutation in members that we had separated earlier based on the mutations in DYS359b and DYS464. We cannot escape the conclusion that CDYb, DYS534, and DSY460 mutated twice in independant branches. Note that CDYb has the highest mutation rate and DYS534 is higher than most of the others.

Some comments:

A tree of this sort is intended to show the sequence of mutations and gives an indication of which lines descend from a common ancestor more recent than the ancestor who was the common ancestor of all of them. It does not give an accurate representation of the actual family tree because we have no way of knowing whether any given mutation was within the most recent generation of the DNA donor or was many generations ago.

It appeares that the two main surname branches, (1) Hoge/Hogue and (2) Carr/Kerr/Cerr/Karr, have equal right to claim to be the main branch. The Prater (other42), McLean (other08), and Hamilton (other06) lines have Hoge-like DNA and are placed in the tree with the Hoge/Hogue lines. Three of the Carr lines (other07, other13, and other33) also have Hoge-like DNA and are placed in the tree with the Hoge/Hogue lines. Note that other07 and other33 descend from Archibald Carr who first appears in America and might actually be descendants of William and Barbara Hoge. The Middleton line (other28), the Roberts line (other24), and the Kilbour line (other23) have Carr-like DNA and are placed in the tree with the Carr lines. The two Carr lines, other10 and other42, and the McIntire line (other12) appear to be transitional between Hoge-like DNA and Carr-like DNA.